NHC Flags Low-Chance Disturbance South-Southeast of Hawaii
If your cruise route passes near Hawaii or the Baja California area, note that the National Hurricane Center is tracking Tropical Storm Lowell north-northwest of Hawaii and Tropical Depression Fourteen-E southwest of Baja California, as of the Wednesday, September 9, 2026 advisory. The south-southeast Hawaii disturbance carries only a 10-20 percent formation chance, and the Baja-area system a 50 percent seven-day chance. Check NHC updates through the weekend and into early next week before finalizing plans.
Mark's Take: What jumps out here is how modest these formation odds are — 10 percent in 48 hours, 20 percent over a week for the system south-southeast of Hawaii, and near 0 percent in the near term for the Baja-area disturbance. This is the NHC doing what it does daily: cataloguing possibilities, not sounding alarms. The named systems — Tropical Storm Lowell and newly designated Tropical Depression Fourteen-E — are the ones carrying advisories and worth watching first. My read is the real story here is the Baja-area low's 50 percent seven-day chance, since that's the one with room to organize into something that matters for eastern Pacific routes. In the reader's shoes, I'd watch Fourteen-E's advisories rather than the low-probability trough near Hawaii.