Hurricane Season Starts Today With Fewer Storms Expected for Cruisers
If you're sailing the Atlantic or Caribbean between now and November 30, 2026, expect that even this below-average forecast could still bring itinerary changes, delays, or cancellations, as happened to at least 21 ships across nine cruise lines in 2025. Cruise lines will contact booked passengers directly with updates as storms develop, so watch your email and booking portal. Review your hurricane preparedness plans now, since NOAA's Ken Graham notes it only takes one storm to disrupt a season.
NOAA's 70 percent confidence in a below-average season is a reasonable bet, but Ken Graham's own caveat — "it only takes one storm" — is the line that matters here. My read is that 2025 proves the point: a season with fewer major hurricanes than average by count still produced Erin, Humberto, and Melissa, storms severe enough to force at least 21 ships across nine lines, including Royal Caribbean and Carnival, to reroute. A quieter statistical outlook doesn't mean a quieter booking season. If I were sailing this summer or fall, I'd treat the El Niño forecast as a mild tailwind, not a guarantee, and keep travel insurance and flexible dates in my back pocket. The cruise lines will handle rerouting; your job is just not to be surprised by it.