Pacific Tropical Outlook: NHC Tracks Storm Lowell and New Depression Near Baja
If you're sailing near Hawaii or off the Baja California coast in the coming days, keep an eye on Tropical Storm Lowell (north-northwest of the islands) and Tropical Depression Fourteen-E (southwest of Baja). Also watch the trough south-southeast of Hawaii and the disturbance forecast to form south of Baja California this weekend, which the NHC gives a 50 percent chance of developing within seven days. Check NHC advisories for updates through the weekend and early next week.
Mark's Take: What jumps out here is how much is brewing in the Pacific basin at once — Tropical Storm Lowell already carrying 50-knot winds north-northwest of Hawaii, a brand-new Tropical Depression Fourteen-E off Baja, plus two more disturbances the NHC is watching. The Baja-area system is the one I'd flag first: a 50 percent chance of tropical depression formation within seven days is a real number, not a throwaway line, and it sits right along West Coast repositioning and Mexican Riviera routes. The Hawaii trough, by contrast, is a 10-20 percent long shot and probably not worth losing sleep over yet. My read is this is a normal September Pacific pattern, not a crisis, but I'd have my cruise line's app open and be checking NHC advisories daily if I had a sailing anywhere near Baja in the next week.