Tropical Storm Vance Brings Flood and Mudslide Risk to Mexico's Pacific Side
If your cruise or shore plans touch Mexico's west-central or northwestern coast or the southern Baja California Peninsula, monitor Vance's progress today, Thursday, Oct. 29. The advisory names Sinaloa, Durango and Nayarit for rain, flooding and mudslides, especially along steep terrain, so think twice about overland excursions there. Stay out of the water, since swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents over the next couple of days. Watch local weather office products, and the next NHC advisory at 800 AM MST.
My read is that this is a short-lived, mostly land-and-surf story rather than a ship-disrupting one. The advisory lists no coastal watches or warnings, and it expects Vance to weaken and become a post-tropical remnant low late today, so the storm itself is fading. The real hazard is rain: 2 to 4 inches across central and southern Sinaloa, far southwestern Durango and far northwestern Nayarit, with isolated 7-inch totals. The advisory warns of flooding and mudslides on steep terrain, and that is what would wreck an independent shore day. The winners are travelers who read the forecast and skip risky excursions. The losers are anyone who treats a 40 mph tropical storm as harmless because the winds are modest. The advisory also flags life-threatening surf and rip currents for Baja and the mainland coast, so a beach day is the trap. The NHC says nothing about cruises, so I would not guess at itinerary changes. In your shoes, I would check with your cruise line and keep an eye on the 800 AM MST update.