Tropical Storm Isaias Forms in the Gulf, Forecast to Become a Hurricane by Thursday
If your plans touch the Yucatan Peninsula or the U.S. northern Gulf Coast, from far southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, this storm is on your radar. Check the National Hurricane Center's next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT, since Hurricane Watches are likely later today. Watch Thursday for Yucatan winds and swells, and Friday through the weekend for Gulf Coast rain. Check the rip current risk graphic if you will be on a beach, and consult your local weather office.
My read is that the number to watch here is not the 40 mph wind speed but the forecast. The advisory says Isaias goes from tropical storm to hurricane within a day or two, and it expects Hurricane Watches for part of the U.S. northern Gulf coast later today. The track runs north of the Yucatan on Thursday, then toward the Gulf Coast on Friday. That timeline is short for anyone with a Gulf plan. The advisory names no cruise lines, ships or ports, so I will not guess at itinerary changes. Anyone who does that is speculating. What it does give us is rainfall of 3 to 6 inches, with localized totals up to 10 inches, from far southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, plus life-threatening surf and rip currents. In your shoes, I would read the 1000 AM CDT advisory, not the headlines, and I would take the rapid-strengthening language at face value. Fast-intensifying storms are the ones that punish people who wait for a second update.